The Numbers Don't Lie

One of the things that I do on this blog is critique things that wind up in my facebook feed.  First, I am pro-life. This is why I despise bad pro-life arguments.  I think that when you mislead people to the point that they cannot tell fact from fiction then you wind up with a guy like Donald Trump running for the White House.  This is why I was disappointed when this June 24, 2014 post by the National Pro-Life Alliance showed up in my feed.

"The numbers don't lie. 

Abortion is the leading cause of death in the United States every year."

I dealt with this last December in Do these statistics bother you?.  Someone reminded me then that the post did not say that abortion was the leading cause, but it was one of many leading causes.  Also the numbers were more fuzzy since I could not fact check how many deaths could be attributed to each leading cause since 1973.  This post by NPLA gives easily fact checkable numbers and states that "abortion is the leading cause of death in the United States every year".

First let's check their numbers.  According to the CDC they are correct about heart disease and cancer.  Again citing the CDC, they are also correct about accidents.  However the abortion number is 150% higher than the actual number.  150% is not mere rounding so let's look at the actual numbers.  According to Guttmacher, there were 1.06 million abortions in the United States during the year 2011 which was down 13% from the 1.21 million in year 2008.  1.6 million is even 133% higher than the 2008 number.  In fact, 1.6 million is higher than the annual number for Mexico, Canada, and the United States combined from 1995-2008.

The NPLA is claiming that hundreds of thousands more abortions are occurring in the US than actually are.

As I mentioned last December, the miscarriage rate is higher than the abortion rate, especially if you believe, as I do, that life begins at conception.  Among women that know they are pregnant, the NIH places the rate between 15-20%. However a woman can be pregnant before she knows that she is.  If you monitor a woman's hormone levels, we discover that the rate is actually around 31% , because embryos commonly miscarry before a woman knows that she is pregnant.  

The 2011 abortion rate was 16.9%, the lowest since the 1973 rate of 16.3%.  A miscarriage rate of 31% is 180% higher than the abortion rate.  Even ignoring failed implantation, ectopic pregnancies, and twinning; the miscarriage rate is substantially higher.  If we consider the unborn, abortion is not the leading cause of death in the United States, miscarriage is. The fact that pro-life organizations ignore or minimize miscarriage to get at abortion is not appropriate.

Like last December, let's fix their chart by fixing the inflated abortion numbers and adding miscarriage.  Using the most recent abortion numbers of 1.06 million X 180% = 1.9 million miscarriages.

If life begins at conception and you include the unborn then miscarriage is the leading cause of death in the United States.

Do not believe all the youtube captions

Warning the video is graphic: I found this video in my news feed with the following caption.

A suicide Bomber was shot dead by Israeli forces, Muslims took up his body and started protesting and these Dumbos did not know that that suicide belt was still tied to the bomber body they were carrying.. what happened next .is in the video.

This video was originally released June 30, 2012.  The funeral is for Syrian opposition leader, Abdul Hadi al-Halabi.  The location of the funeral is a suburb of Damascus,  Zamalka.  According to anti-Assad activists al-Halabi had been killed by a government sniper.  During his funeral, according to these activists, a car bomb went off killing 20-50 people.  Those flags are the "Independence Flag", the flag of the some of the Syrian opposition forces.

Feel free to learn more from my sources.

Watching Syria’s War

Talks Come Up With Plan for Syria, but Not for Assad’s Exit

Viral video and apples to apples

This September 5, 2014 video of President Obama and President Reagan has been in my news feed as of late so I decided to blog about it.

First, the video starts with a heavily edited couple of clips from Obama's August 28, 2014 press briefing.  The author makes a number of dishonest edits.

• He edits out the question that Obama was answering, 
• He makes an edit mid-sentence
• He leaves out most of the answer to the question.  

A heavily edited Obama is only given about 26 seconds to make his case.  The highlighted portions are what the author left in.

Q Do you need Congress’s approval to go into Syria?

THE PRESIDENT: I have consulted with Congress throughout this process. I am confident that as Commander-in-Chief I have the authorities to engage in the acts that we are conducting currently. As our strategy develops, we will continue to consult with Congress. And I do think that it will be important for Congress to weigh in, or that our consultations with Congress continue to develop so that the American people are part of the debate.

But I don’t want to put the cart before the horse. We don’t have a strategy yet. I think what I’ve seen in some of the news reports suggests that folks are getting a little further ahead of where we’re at than we currently are. And I think that’s not just my assessment, but the assessment of our military as well. We need to make sure that we’ve got clear plans, that we’re developing them. At that point, I will consult with Congress and make sure that their voices are heard. But there’s no point in me asking for action on the part of Congress before I know exactly what it is that is going to be required for us to get the job done.

Cutting off a person in the middle of a sentence is really dishonest.  The person does not get to express their complete idea.  Further the author had to have known what he was doing since he made the edits.  Second, in an internet age, sourcing is easy.  They could have easily provided unedited sources, like I am, but then they would have been caught breaking a sentence in half.

He then provides a clip of Reagan that has parts edited out that he does not think are important.  The heavily edited Reagan section is from his April 14, 1986 address on Libya.

My fellow Americans, at 7 o'clock this evening Eastern time, air and naval forces of the United States launched a series of strikes against the headquarters, terrorist facilities and military assets that support Muammar Qaddafi's subversive activities.

The attacks were concentrated and carefully targeted to minimize casualties among the Libyan people, with whom we have no quarrel.

From initial reports, our forces have succeeded in their mission. Several weeks ago, in New Orleans, I warned Colonel Qaddafi we would hold his regime accountable for any new terrorist attacks launched against American citizens. More recently, I made it clear we would respond as soon as we determined conclusively who was responsible for such attacks.

On April 5 in West Berlin a terrorist bomb exploded in a nightclub frequented by American servicemen. Sgt. Kenneth Ford and a young Turkish woman were killed and 230 others were wounded, among them some 50 American military personnel. Evidence Is Now Conclusive

This monstrous brutality is but the latest act in Colonel Qaddafi's reign of terror. The evidence is now conclusive that the terrorist bombing of La Belle discotheque was planned and executed under the direct orders of the Libyan regime.

On March 25, more than a week before the attack, orders were sent from Tripoli to the Libyan People's Bureau in East Berlin to conduct a terrorist attack against Americans, to cause maximum and indiscriminate casualties. Libya's agents then planted the bomb.

On April 4, the People's Bureau alerted Tripoli that the attack would be carried out the following morning. The next day they reported back to Tripoli on the great success of their mission.

Our evidence is direct, it is precise, it is irrefutable. We have solid evidence about other attacks Qaddafi has planned against the United States' installations and diplomats and even American tourists. Other Attacks Prevented

Thanks to close cooperation with our friends, some of these have been prevented. With the help of French authorities, we recently aborted one such attack: a planned massacre using grenades and small arms of civilians waiting in lines for visas at an American Embassy.

Colonel Qaddafi is not only an enemy of the United States. His record of subversion and aggression against the neighboring states in Africa is well documented and well known. He has ordered the murder of fellow Libyans in countless countries. He has sanctioned acts of terror in Africa, Europe and the Middle East, as well as the Western Hemisphere. Today we have done what we had to do. If necessary, we shall do it again. It gives me no pleasure to say that, and I wish it were otherwise. Before Qaddafi seized power in 1969, the people of Libya had been friends of the United States, and I'm sure that today most Libyans are ashamed and disgusted that this man has made their country a synonym for barbarism around the world.

The Libyan people are a decent people caught in the grip of a tyrant. Actions Can't Be Ignored

To our friends and allies in Europe who cooperated in today's mission, I would only say you have the primary gratitude of the American people. Europeans who remember history understand better than most that there is no security, no safety, in the appeasement of evil. It must be the core of Western policy that there be no sanctuary for terror, and to sustain such a policy, free men and free nations must unite and work together.

Sometimes it is said that by imposing sanctions against Colonel Qaddafi or by striking at his terrorist installations, we only magnify the man's importance - that the proper way to deal with him is to ignore him. I do not agree. Long before I came into this office, Colonel Qaddafi had engaged in acts of international terror - acts that put him outside the company of civilized men. For years, however, he suffered no economic, or political or military sanction, and the atrocities mounted in number, as did the innocent dead and wounded.

And for us to ignore, by inaction, the slaughter of American civilians and American soldiers, whether in nightclubs or airline terminals, is simply not in the American tradition. When our citizens are abused or attacked anywhere in the world, on the direct orders of a hostile regime, we will respond, so long as I'm in this Oval Office. Self-defense is not only our right, it is our duty. It is the purpose behind the mission undertaken tonight - a mission fully consistent with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. Secure World Is Nearer

We believe that this pre-emptive action against his terrorist installations will not only diminish Colonel Qaddafi's capacity to export terror -it will provide him with incentives and reasons to alter his criminal behavior. I have no illusion that tonight's action will bring down the curtain on Qaddafi's reign of terror, but this mission, violent though it was, can bring closer a safer and more secure world for decent men and women. We will persevere.

This afternoon we consulted with the leaders of Congress regarding what we were about to do and why. Tonight, I salute the skill and professionalism of the men and women of our armed forces who carried out this mission. It's an honor to be your Commander in Chief.

We Americans are slow to anger. We always seek peaceful avenues before resorting to the use of force, and we did. We tried quiet diplomacy, public condemnation, economic sanctions and demonstrations of military force - none succeeded. Despite our repeated warnings, Qaddafi continued his reckless policy of intimidation, his relentless pursuit of terror.

He counted on America to be passive. He counted wrong. I warned that there should be no place on earth where terrorists can rest and train and practice their deadly skills. I meant it. I said that we would act with others if possible and alone if necessary to insure that terrorists have no sanctuary anywhere.

Tonight we have. Thank you, and God bless you.

So what words of Reagan did the author not find important? The author leaves out the parts about minimizing civilian casualties

The attacks were concentrated and carefully targeted to minimize casualties among the Libyan people, with whom we have no quarrel.

He leaves out the part about several weeks of warning and investigation.

Several weeks ago, in New Orleans, I warned Colonel Qaddafi we would hold his regime accountable for any new terrorist attacks launched against American citizens. More recently, I made it clear we would respond as soon as we determined conclusively who was responsible for such attacks. 

 He leaves out the part about Reagan explaining step by step how they knew Qaddafi was the culprit.

• March 25, 1986, Tripoli sent orders to the Libyan People's Bureau in East Berlin
• April 4, 1986 The Libyan People's Bureau alerted Tripoli

Reagan did not spring into action.  It took him weeks to build a case.  As Reagan put it.

Our evidence is direct, it is precise, it is irrefutable. We have solid evidence about other attacks Qaddafi has planned against the United States' installations and diplomats and even American tourists.

The author leaves out the part where Reagan says he will most likely not defeat Qaddafi.  If Obama had done such a thing, you can imagine the outrage.  No wonder he left it out.

We believe that this pre-emptive action against his terrorist installations will not only diminish Colonel Qaddafi's capacity to export terror -it will provide him with incentives and reasons to alter his criminal behavior. I have no illusion that tonight's action will bring down the curtain on Qaddafi's reign of terror, but this mission, violent though it was, can bring closer a safer and more secure world for decent men and women. We will persevere. 

Perhaps most telling, the author omits all references to diplomacy.

 We Americans are slow to anger. We always seek peaceful avenues before resorting to the use of force, and we did. We tried quiet diplomacy, public condemnation, economic sanctions and demonstrations of military force - none succeeded. Despite our repeated warnings, Qaddafi continued his reckless policy of intimidation, his relentless pursuit of terror.

A video like the one this author produced is not designed to prove anything.  Actually proving things requires evidence and this author leaves out large chunks of evidence.

He could have compared apples to apples. Instead of comparing an off the cuff answer to a reporter, he could have given one of Obama's prepared addresses on Qaddafi.  Obama had at least three.

Remarks by the President on the Situation in Libya - March 18, 2011

Statement by the President on Libya - August 22, 2011

Remarks by the President on the Death of Muammar Qaddafi - October 20, 2011

He could have even  pulled other examples from that particular August briefing, but all these suggestions of what he could have done; imply a level of veracity that the author really does not have.

I could not find an example of Reagan answering a reporter on Congressional approval.  It is worth noting that since the question was about Congressional authorization for Obama's war with ISIS, Obama originally tried to go it alone.  After political pressure, Obama went to Congress for authorization, February 11, 2015.  As of this blog post, it has been 23 weeks and three days since the President asked for Congressional authorization.  

PS - In fairness, since the original video was likely posted September 5, 2014 to facebook, he did not have access to the President's briefing on attacking ISIS given five days later.

Statement by the President on ISIL - September 10, 2014

Trump and a coffee cup

Donald Trump has made a lot of news lately with immigration.  Like a lot of his ilk, he tells half truths and then falls back on the truth to back up his half-truth.  Before I go into Trump's accusations, I'll use this coffee cup meme as an example of what I mean.  

Every year on average, 35,000 white women are raped by black men, while under 10 black women are raped by white men.  Source US Justice Dept
#racetogether

This meme is a half-truth.  There are some truths in it, but there is a enough falsehood and lack of context in the meme to make it only half true.

First, this is the data that the meme is referring to from the US Justice Department.

Chart edited to show only data relevant to the discussion

Here we come to the first blatant falsehood in this meme. The chart says 16.4% of 117,640 rape/sexual assaults of white victims are committed by black offenders.  The data does not give information for rape alone.  The second blatant falsehood has to do with the meme's lack of Junior High math skills.   16.4% of 117,640 is 19,293, not 35,000.  Even allowing for the rape/sexual assault error, the real number is only 54% of what the meme claims. Later, we will get into how Trump inflates his numbers as well to exaggerate a problem.

Still, one might respond, "It is still a disparity, 0% of black women had rape/sexual assaults from white offenders".  With two falsehoods down, now we get into the misrepresentation of the context of the data.  In this chart the asterisk are important.

Crime (particularly sex crime) is under reported. The purpose of this report is for the Justice Department to make competent projections about the total number of crimes. Interracial sex crime is so rare that there are 10 or fewer sample cases for this report to speculate from.  All of the follow have 10 or fewer sample cases.

• Black on white
• Other on white
• Not known or not available on white
• White on black
• Black on black
• Other on black
• Not known or not available on black

The data is not that great.  Given this context any speculations are very, very tentative.  

Finally who is most likely to rape/sexually assault white women?  Almost 75% of the offenders were white; 88,112 compared to 19,293.  The overwhelming danger to white women is not from black men, but from white men.  This last bit of context destroys the implication of the meme.  

In summary

1. It is rape/sexual assault not rape.
2. It is about 19,000 not 35,000 (a 54% difference).
3. The data is based on 10 or fewer samples.
4. White women are far more likely to be raped or sexually assaulted by white men.

Sure, someone could cite case after case of black men raping/sexually assaulting white women. There should be thousands of them. They could say, "See black men do rape white women, just like I said."  However what they actually said was grossly exaggerated and stripped from context.  There are thousands of black on white cases, but there are tens of thousands of white on white cases.

Trump said that illegal immigrants were rapists and murders with the implication being that there is a large amount of crime committed by illegal immigrants.  When challenged, he sought to prove that some illegal immigrants were rapists. Yes that's true, some illegal immigrants are rapists, as are some Jews, Muslims, Protestants, Catholics, Irish, Italian, Vietnamese, Chinese, etc...  Still accusing a particular group of being rapists has the implication that they are more rapey than others and this has not been demonstrated to be the case.  In fact when illegal immigration peaked crime rates continued to decline.  

Trump also speculates, with no real evidence, that the number of illegal immigrants is 34 million, more than three times the actual rate.  The actual number is is about 11 million.  He also claims that the rate of illegal immigration is increasing and there are more illegal immigrants than ever before.  As mentioned above the rate is declining.  

If you challenge Trump, he will fall back to the facts to defend his half-truths.  There are illegal immigrants who rape and murder.  However as Trump surely knows that is by far not most of them.

Trump's strategy of stereotyping illegal immigrants as rapists and murderers could be applied to legal immigrants or any sizable group in the country. There is no real evidence that illegal immigrants rape or murder more than the population as a whole. However, there are groups that do disproportionally rape and murder who are trying to fight stereotyping their whole group.

PS

John Nolte at Breitbart says he does not care if illegal immigrants commit crimes at higher or lower rates.  The point he argues is they never should have been around to commit the crime to begin with.

Trump needs to get these numbers out there and remind America’s Anderson Coopers and Chuck Todds that it doesn’t matter how these numbers compare to similar offenses committed by Americans and legal immigrants. The fact that more than a thousand children have been sexually assaulted by illegals — people who never should have been able to get in the country to begin with — is unconscionable and unacceptable.

These children are victims of our feckless government and the media the covers for them.
Democrats and the media aren’t willing to secure the border to save one child from sexual assault, much less near a thousand.

Who are the real monsters here?

The media will cover shark attacks, but not near a thousand children sexually assaulted by illegals?

In fairness the media also will not cover the amount of children sexually assaulted by non-illegals which is orders of magnitude higher.  Still, to Nolte, the point is that these are preventable crimes.