Showing posts with label law of large numbers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label law of large numbers. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Birthday Paradox


[Source]
  • If 23 people are in a room together, there is about a 50% chance that two of them share a birthday.
  • If 48 people are in a room together, there is about a 95% chance that two of them share a birthday.
  • If 88 people are in a room together, there is about a 50% chance that three of them share a birthday.
  • In a crowd of 1813 there is a 50% chance that thirteen of them share one birthday.
Why?

When you put 20 people in a room, however, the thing that changes is the fact that each of the 20 people is now asking each of the other 19 people about their birthdays. Each individual person only has a small (less than 5%) chance of success, but each person is trying it 19 times. That increases the probability dramatically. [1]