Monday Myths:Global Cooling

One of the most ridiculous myths of the last decade was "global cooling".  

As cap-and-trade advocates tie their knickers in knots over so-called “global warming,” Mother Nature refuses to cooperate. Earth’s temperatures continue a chilling trend that began eleven years ago. As global cooling accelerates, global-warmists kick, scream, and push their pet theory — just like little kids who cover their ears and stomp their feet when older children tell them not to bother waiting up for Santa Claus on Christmas Eve. [Murdock, Deroy "Global Cooling Chills Summer 2009" National Review Online July 13, 2009 retrieved 9/12/2011]

He then proceeded to list colder winter conditions around the globe.  2009 would go on to be the sixth warmest year according to Met, the seventh warmest year according to NOAA, and the fourth warmest year according to NASA.  Now what was he talking about?  Well, eleven years before 2009 was 1998.  1998 was an extremely hot year and remained the hottest year on record until it was definitively topped by 2005.  So any line you chart starting from 1998 was going to go down.  This is a logical fallacy known as cherry picking.  In a large amount of data one can find a result they want.  One needs to amass as much data as possible so one can notice any trends. NASA starts their chart at 1880 not 1998.

Now I said definitively topped, because according to NASA's calculations 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2009 statistically tied with 1998 for third place. Those years varied only from .48 to .51.[NASA Research Finds 2010 Tied for Warmest Year on Record]  By any measure the only years from the 1990's that made it into the top ten during July 2009 were 1997 and 1995.  Those two years were knocked out of the rankings by 2009 and then 2010.  If global cooling really started after 1998 wouldn't we expect for the 90's to be warmer than the 00's?  However almost every 00's was a top ten record breaker and their cumulative records made the 00's the warmest decade on record since records began in 1880.

We had people arguing for global cooling during the warmest decade on record.  One might excuse it when 1999, 2000, and 2001 were cooler. However when 2002 and 2003 tied 1998, this did not prove global cooling.  Two years later 2005 beats 1998.  2000-05 all occupied rankings in the top ten.  2006-07 are both colder than 2005, but they still tie 1998. 2008 was a colder year, but still the 00's were one year away from being the warmest decade on record.  Those that advocated global cooling in 2009 did not know it, but 2009 year would become the fifth year to statistically tie 1998.

Since 2010 was the warmest year on record, I have already heard more talk about global cooling again.  2011 is likely to be a warm year, but will likely be cooler than 2010.  The next couple of years will also likely be cooler than 2010.  This will most likely not be a cooling trend.  However this should not be about prophecy, let us see what nature brings.

PS - I know I largely relied on NASA's data.  I did this for the sake of simplicity.  However I provide three sources of data.  These data sources do not agree on the minutia, but they do demonstrate an overall trend.  They definitely do not follow the argument of global cooling.